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25 July 2015

latest re Kick 'em Jenny / from Martinique, the Mother Of All Killer Volcanos


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Beaucoup de vagues autour du Kick'em Jenny

C.Everard Samedi 25 juillet 2015
Le volcan sous-marin est au bord de l'éruption, alimentant toutes les conversations. Posons-nous un instant, asseyons-nous près de la mer et regardons, en face, le Kick'em Jenny et le risque tsunami associé.
1 - Le Kick'em Jenny : présentation
Le Kick'em Jenny (KEJ) est un volcan sous-marin situé à 8 km au Nord de Grenade, à 300 km au Sud de la Martinique. Son sommet est situé à 180 mètres sous la surface de la mer. Il s'agit du seul volcan sous-marin vraiment actif des Antilles.
2 - Pourquoi semble-t-il plus dangereux aujourd'hui ?
C'est un volcan très surveillé.
Jeudi matin, entre 1h25 et 3h00, heure locale, son activité s'est amplifiée, c'est-à-dire que les secousses sismiques se sont multipliées et un dégazage a été constaté.
Le Centre de Recherche Sismique de l'Université West Indies a alors placé le volcan au niveau de vigilance orange. Le périmètre maritime d'exclusion est aussi passé de 1,5 à 5 km de rayon autour du volcan.
3 - Quels sont les précédents événements ?
En 1939, une éruption importante du KEJ eut lieu, envoyant un nuage de cendres à 270 mètres au-dessus du niveau de la mer. Le tsunami qui suivit présentait une amplitude de 2 mètres sur les côtes de Grenade. Au niveau de la Martinique, les vagues arrivèrent, selon les sources, avec une hauteur de 30 à 70 cm. Depuis, onze autres éruptions ont eu lieu, ne donnant pas lieu à un tsunami visible.
4 - Quelle est la hauteur de vague possible ?
Cela dépend du phénomène qui cause le tsunami. Selon la thèse de Frédéric Dondin, menée au sein de l'UAG, un effondrement d'un pan du volcan pourrait entraîner une vague, chez nous, d'une hauteur de 5 à 20 cm.
Pascal Saffache, président honoraire de l'UAG, en se basant sur le cas d'un tsunami créé directement par l'éruption, comme en 1939, évoque une hauteur d'environ 50 cm. Même si cette hauteur s'enfoncerait relativement bien dans les terres, il n'y aurait pas de grand danger pour la population. Cela causerait plutôt des dégâts matériels. Le tsunami mettrait entre 30 et 40 minutes à nous parvenir.
Une image du Kick'em Jenny reconstituée par sonar. (NOAA)
5 - En conclusion : peut-on aller à la plage ?
Même en éruption, le Kick'em Jenny ne provoquera pas forcément un tsunami. Et si tsunami il y a, c'est surtout à Grenade que les dégâts peuvent être importants! Il n'est donc pas utile d'annuler sa sortie plage ou yoles ce week-end! D'ailleurs aucune mesure n'est prise, et il n'y a pas d'alerte tsunami.
Toutefois, il faut souligner que la population, à l'heure actuelle, n'a que peu de moyens d'être informée de l'arrivée d'un tsunami : porte-voix communaux ou médias (voir plus bas).
« Il faut donc rester vigilants ces prochaines semaines, observer par exemple si la mer semble se retirer » , souligne Pascal Saffache. Concernant le risque tsunami de manière général, un réflexe devrait être adopter par l'ensemble de la population : celui de monter dans les hauteurs après un fort tremblement de terre et notamment quitter les plages.
Le Kick'em Jenny est situé à 8 km au nord de l'île de Grenade
Vigilance orange : quelle signification ?
La confusion peut être grande. En général, quand on parle de vigilance orange, c'est relatif aux risques Fortes pluies ou Cyclones! Cette échelle-là n'a rien à voir. Il s'agit d'une échelle du niveau d'activité volcanique à quatre niveaux : vert, jaune, orange, rouge. Le niveau orange signifie que les fumerolles et séismes se multiplient. Le niveau rouge est atteint quand le volcan est en cours d'éruption, ce qui n'entraîne, rappelons-le, pas forcément un tsunami.
L'échec de la communication grand public
Noyée sous les informations et contre-informations, la population ne sait plus à quel saint se vouer. Et propage aussi ses propres rumeurs et idées reçues...

Mais comment est-il possible qu'un simple bulletin d'information à caractère scientifique devienne en quelques heures une sorte de diable incontrôlable ?
« Martinique : vigilance orange au risque tsunami! » ; « Risque de tsunami dans la Caraïbe!! » , peut-on lire depuis jeudi soir sur les réseaux sociaux, et parfois jusque dans la presse nationale...
Si un tel déferlement d'informations et de contre-informations est possible, c'est bien parce que la communication des autorités, envers la population, est encore défaillante sur ces sujets. Elles y travaillent sérieusement mais le chantier n'en est qu'à ses balbutiements. Les rumeurs et idées reçues vont beaucoup plus vite!
Que s'est-il passé exactement ? Jeudi, l'Observatoire volcanologique et sismologique de Martinique relaie le bulletin d'information du Centre de Recherche Sismique de l'Université West Indies. On y parle sismicité, on y parle vigilance orange. Le bulletin est technique et, bien entendu, ne donne pas la conduite à suivre.
La préfecture, de son côté, relaie l'information sur son Facebook. « Nous avons agi à la hauteur de l'importance de l'événement » , explique un proche du dossier. « Il n'y avait pas d'alerte au tsunami. » La toile, elle, s'est emparée toute seule du sujet, d'autant qu'une information semblant provenir des « Américains » trouve toujours une oreille du public beaucoup plus attentive que lorsque ce sont les autorités françaises qui s'expriment...
Météo-France connaît bien le sujet. À chaque saison cyclonique, l'organisme affûte sa communication. « Il est toujours très difficile de communiquer sur un sujet plein d'incertitudes, où les connaissances ne sont forcément pas complètes » , explique Jean-Noël Degrace, le directeur régional.
Le risque Tsunami en particulier a été pris en compte de manière récente. Les autorités (le service interministériel de défense et de protection civile, sous l'autorité du préfet en particulier) multiplient les réunions. Ce que l'on nomme l'alerte montante (c'est-à-dire la communication du phénomène depuis les scientifiques jusqu'aux autorités, dont les communes et l'Etat) est en nette amélioration. Par contre, pour l'alerte descendante (c'est-à-dire l'information transmise à la population), c'est encore une catastrophe : il n'y a pas de système d'alerte sur les plages, les réflexes sont non acquis par la population.
Là aussi, le chantier est en route. Le « Groupe intergouvernemental de coordination du Système d'alerte aux tsunamis et autres risques côtiers dans la mer des Caraïbes et les régions adjacentes » (GIC/CARIBEEWS), qui existe depuis 2004, prépare notamment un système de labellisation pour les communes, associations, entreprises, qui se montreront capables de gérer le risque tsunami en amont et en aval.
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the ship is sinking / the ship is sinking / Abandon Ship! / jump into boiling ocean of hot gas / Game Over / Kick 'em Jenny the seamount pops her cork / you won't die boringly -- you will PERISH!!!



Click faux postage stamps to enlarge. 

PatfromCH, Agence-Vleeptron Presse's Mensch-on-the-Ground in Helvetia, guessed the above PizzaQ, but will not tell us how he guessed it, and does not want the pizza.

 I was slow to announce the Correct Answer to the PizzaQ -- what they call "the reveal" on "Ghost Hunters" -- but Nature has kicked me in the tuchas today, so now I MUST give the PizzaQ answer.

This wtf object is Kick 'em Jenny, a famous active underwater volcano or seamount in the Caribbean.

 And LO! Kick-em-Jenny just blew her top!!!

Flee for your Lives!!!

 On the other hand, if you're on a boat floating above Kick 'em Jenny, don't bother to flee for your life. Don't jump off the boat. Don't stay on the boat. Just soil yourself and Think of Mom. Game Over.

 =================

The Daily Mail
UK tabloid
11 AM Saturday 25 July 2015


Warning issued as Kick 'em Jenny volcano 

in  Caribbean off Grenada 

threatens to erupt 

and could cause ships to sink without trace

  • Underwater volcano is expected to erupt at any time within 24 hour period
  • Could trigger tsunami and cause hot rocks to be shot three miles in the air
  • Before erupting goes through degassing process which puts ships at risk
  • When that happened in 1944, passenger ship sunk after losing buoyancy - killing 60 people  
By Euan McLelland For MailOnline
Published: 06:13 EST, 25 July 5 112015 | Updated: 08:18 EST, 25 July 201

An underwater volcano off the Caribbean coast is on the verge of erupting - posing a risk to all passing ships.

Named Kick 'em Jenny, the volcano - which sits 180m below sea level off the northern coast of Grenada - has produced no less than 200 small earthquakes since it began stirring on July 11.

However, experts at the University of the West Indies' Seismic Research Centre have raised its threat level to orange, predicting that it could erupt at any point.
Named Kick 'em Jenny, the volcano - which sits 180m below sea level off the northern coast of Grenada (pictured)  - has produced no less than 200 small earthquakes since it began stirring on July 11
Named Kick 'em Jenny, the volcano - which sits 180m below sea level off the northern coast of Grenada (pictured)  - has produced no less than 200 small earthquakes since it began stirring on July 11
If it were to, then both passing ships and nearby islands will be in danger of being hit by a tsunami.

Scientists say the risk is relatively low, but both shipping and marine vessels in the region have been urged to take heed, with recreational ships ordered to stay at least 3 miles from the summit.

Submarine volcanoes are known to release intense amounts of gas when they erupt, and in between such release gas bubbles in a process known as degassing.
This graphic explains how much of a threat underwater volcanoes - also known as submarine volcanoes - pose
This graphic explains how much of a threat underwater volcanoes - also known as submarine volcanoes - pose
This image taken in waters near Taiwan shows the moment another rare underwater volcano erupts
This image taken in waters near Taiwan shows the moment another rare underwater volcano erupts
These bubbles lower water density, thus causing ships to lose buoyancy and sink.
Any eruption could also see Kick 'em Jenny spout hot rocks out of the water and as much as three miles into the air.

They then pose a significant risk to ships caught in the vicinity.

In 1944, degassing from Kick 'em Jenny caused a passenger vessel to sink, killing 60 people. 

Its last eruption was in 14 years ago, in 2001.
The rumbling volcano is situated just off the north coast of the Caribbean island of Grenada
The rumbling volcano is situated just off the north coast of the Caribbean island of Grenada



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Bob Amca the Suisse Tourist with camcorder & Bermuda shorts finally gets to Istanbul (not Constantinople no you can't go back to Constantinople why did Constantinople get the works? That's nobody's business but the Turks!

 Click to enlarge.
Dear ****,

In apartments / flats, people trying to fall asleep are tormented by the person in the upstairs apartment who drops one shoe ... but an hour goes by, and the other shoe never drops.

So Bob Amca apologizes for dropping his Amca shoe without a sufficient explanation. I will now drop the other shoe.
My Turkish chat friends call me Bob Amca because most of them are young -- uni age -- but they know I am old (... well, older ...) and they chat respectfully to the older gentleman who asks them if they like Erdogan or his recent challenge to Ataturk's secular vision for modern Turkey. From the other side of Earth, Bob Amca has come to the conclusion that the more uni education you have in the big cities, the less you like Erdogan. (But obviously there are lots of Turks who do not live in Istanbul or Ankara.)

I will only admit now that I was born in the previous millennium, and enjoyed the crime movie "Topkapi" when it first appeared in theaters. ("Topkapi" is most of my personal knowledge of Istanbul and stadium wrestling competitions -- my understanding of Istanbul is worse than the understanding of the Swiss Tourist with a feather in his hat, in Bermuda shorts carrying a videocam.)

I love to travel, and I think there is a kind of Beauty to a tourist's ignorance about the things that are going on all around him, that all the locals understand perfectly. I always desire to know More and Truer about far places, but I am also very proud of my profound ignorances and the crazy ways I have got Everything All Wrong. Especially with lingos that are not part of the Indo-European lingo family. It's like the Many-World theory of physics ... there is Istanbul, and then there is an entirely different Istanbul inside the Swiss tourist's mind. And then the Istanbul in the Korean lady's mind. (There is a controversy among linguists, some believe Korean is a Finno-Ugrik lingo, like Turkish, Hungarian and Finnish/Suomi. I think Estonian, too.)

But I never misunderstand the food. I grok* the local food completely, accurately and very often.

My delay in responding has been because of unimportant but complicated and neurotically stressful circumstances. I refer to episodes like this as :"being pecked to death around my ankles by ducks." Perhaps someday I will write a Horror Movie about an invasion of angry barnyard poultry that pecks teenage boys and girls around their ankles. (I am getting very tired of Zombies and Sharknadoes.)

Oh yes, some of the neurotic duck-ankle-pecking are the inevitable handmaidens of Growing Older -- pains of the skeleton, and ambulating in a much less competent way than the Army taught me when they got their hands on me in 1969. After the sergeant was done with me, I ambulated very well, and often for very long distances with very heavy backpacks. (I liked their boots, though. Army makes the Best Boots.)

In our Revolution of 1776 , most of our soldiers were illiterate farmers. Their drillmaster, the Prussian Baron von Steuben, could not teach dozens of them the nuances of Left and Right.

But they all knew the difference between Hay and Straw. So von Steuben tied Hay to their Left Boot, and Straw to their Right Boot, and he would yell: HAY FOOT, STRAW FOOT, HAY FOOT! and our Army learned to march fairly well. Maybe not as good as the British soldiers who lost the Revolution. We fought them again in 1812, they marched south from Canada and burned Washington DC (my boyhood home town). The White House is white because we painted it to cover up the burned walls. (The year before, we marched north and burned Toronto.)

One of my proudest Army medals was Worst Soldier Ever, I was presented it by one of my sergeants. It looks like the kind of ornament you buy at the travelling amusement show or circus for $1, for a 6-year-old child.)

What, if anything, is left architecturally of the Constantinople hippodrome where they staged the chariot races? Do you know about the long war in Constantinople between the fans of the Blue Chariot Team, versus the fans of the Red Chariot Team? Hundreds of people were murdered and the Emperor and Mrs. Emperor almost had to flee Byzantium. (As they tried to put her on the escape boat, she suddenly announced: "I'm not leaving." She stayed and murdered a few thousand citizens who bothered her, to teach them to behave with more respect.)

Thanks for letting me explain why they call me Amca. It's nearly 07:00 and ducks are pecking my ankles and preventing me from finishing my sleep. Did you see the Jules Verne movie "Journey to the Center of the Earth"? The evil Count Saknussem never slept. "I hate those little slices of death," he explained. Everyone hated him, and (Spoiler Alert!) finally a giant prehistoric lizard ate him. The kids in the audiences all applauded and cheered.

From the Leiden train/bus station, take Local Bus No. 2 to Rijnsburg. Ask the driver to let you off at Spinozalaan. Then you walk through a reasonably pretty university housing neighborhood for 2 blocks, and Spinoza's old cottage, where he polished glass lenses in his upstairs rooms, is at the corner of Spinozalaan and Camphuysenstraat. There's a very handsome statue of Young Spinoza (he never got old, he died young, probably of breathing glass dust) in the beautiful little garden. He looks more like a Pirate than a Philosophy Nerd.

The clue that you've found Spinoza's cottage is this poem engraved to the left of the front door:

Click to enlarge.

Eid Mubarak -- I know I am terribly late, please excuse me -- and I wish you lots of Spinoza and species tulips.

Bob Amca
Chesterfield Massachusetts USA

* grok is a 1960s word from the science fiction novel "Stranger in a Strange Land." It's like understanding, but in 1000 more dimensions, colors, flavors and sounds than mere understanding. Spinoza certainly would have grokked a lot.
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19 July 2015

icelandic lesson on ukulele by Eliza Geirsdóttir Newman / someone's in charge and it's definitely not you / how much for Mosaic No. 3?


Speakers ON / Full Screen mode

Vleeptron promised you VOLCANOS!!! and here's one of the biggest, nastiest, most costly volcanos in modern times -- AND Elíza (the dóttir of Geir) pronounces it on her ukulele, as well as offering you the best human emotional response to an erupting volcano.

(But most people panic, or scream at the airline attendant because their flight was cancelled.)

Right now Volcán de Colima, also known as Volcán de Fuego, one of the world's historically most violent volcanos, is popping off in southern Mexico. Its frequent eruptions have earned it a place on the "Decade Volcanos" list -- you can expect it to pop off at least once per decade.

I love volcanos. I love erupting volcanos. I love lahars. I love pyroclastic flows.

There. I've said it. 

To complain or object, Leave A Comment.

Today's Emergency Evacuation Plan from Naples, Italy is essentially the same Emergency Evacuation Plan they used the last time Vesuvius popped in A.D. 79 (preserving the beautiful porno mosaics of the brothels in Pompeii. Sailors from out-of-town would just point to the mosaic they wanted, and the proprietor would tell them how much that would cost).

I use Jennifer's Language Page to say Hello and Thank You and stuff like that in more than 3000 lingos. But Jennifer doesn't have translations for "FLEE FOR YOUR LIFE!" So if you know how to say FLEE FOR YOUR LIFE! in any Earth language, please Leave A Comment. If everybody around me is screaming something, I'd really like to know what they're screaming.

HEAD FOR HIGH GROUND! in 3000 lingos is also very useful. If you're at the beach, and suddenly the water rushes 1000 meters out to sea AWAY from you ... HEAD FOR HIGH GROUND!

=============

Eyjafjallajökull is a long long name
For such a small glacier of such notorious fame
Eyjafjallajökull has caused quite a stir
So no-one can fly home except maybe the birds

Cancel all your plans and cancel all your flights
Cos an angry exploding mountain is always right
It's always right
It's always right
It's always right

Eyjafjallajökull slept for a hundred and eighty seven years
And the gods awoke and spew ashes into the atmosphere
Eyjafjallajökull teach us a thing or two
Don't mess with mother nature
Someone's in charge and it's definitely not you!

Cancel all your plans and cancel all your flights
Cos an angry exploding mountain is always right
You can panic all you want or you can get on with your life
Eyjafjallajökull has dusted the skies
He's always right
He's always right
He's always right

Cancel all your plans and cancel all your flights
Cos an angry exploding mountain is always right
You can panic all you want or you can get on with your life
Cos Eyjafjallajökull has dusted the skies
He's always right
He's always right
He's always right 

copyright © 2010 by Elíza Geirsdóttir Newman


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