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02 November 2007

Subject: Re: Paul Tibbets Jr. [US Air Force pilot of Hiroshima atomic bomb] dies at 92.

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Tibbets commanded the 509th Composite Group
of B-29 Superfortress bombers. American forces had captured the Pacific island of Tinian from the Japanese. Tinian was a key pre-invasion prize, with airstrips within round-trip bombing range of Japan's home islands. A relentless program of conventional bombing raids commenced immediately; Tinian blossomed into the world's busiest military air base.

After stateside training in the Utah desert, the 509th arrived on Tinian in spring 1945 and set up in a remote corner of the tiny island, shrouded in mysterious security. What glimpses of its operations ordinary bomber wings could get seemed strange, almost senseless. Each day a trio of B-29s would fly to Japan, drop one huge conventional bomb, and return. But clearly the 509th received top-priority attention from the highest Air Force levels. Before August, a song by an anonymous bard was sung widely on Tinian.

Nobody Knows

Into the air the secret rose,
Where they're going, nobody knows.
Tomorrow they'll return again,
But we'll never know where they've been.
Don't ask us about results or such,
Unless you want to get in Dutch.
But take it from one who is sure of the score,
The 509th is winning the war.

When the other Groups are ready to go,
We have a program of the whole damned show.

And when Halsey's 5th shells Nippon's shore,

Why, shucks, we hear about it the day before.
And MacArthur and Doolittle give out in advance,
But with this new bunch we haven't a chance.

We should have been home a month or more,
For the 509th is winning the war.


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In a message dated 11/1/2007 1:26:40 PM Central Standard Time, bobmerk@earthlink.net writes: Before August, a song by an anonymous bard was sung widely on Tinian. troglodite writes: That's one I never ran across in any of the many books I read. Where did you come across it or were you there? ==================

Only in my dreams. Lots of people my vintage have them. Science that creeps into your id at night.

My guess is I first ran across this ditty in "Lawrence and Oppenheimer" (1968) by Nuel Pharr Davis, but when I went Googling last night, "the 509th is winning the war" returned dozens of hits.

I can't recommend "Lawrence and Oppenheimer" highly enough, it's not just superbly researched, but very rich in the human dimension of the amazing characters who thought up, built and delivered the thing that changed the world. A dozen excellent books about the first bombs have been published since, and each benefits from a new decade's declassifications. "L&O" has a very different virtue: It was written while most of the central figures were still alive and could be interviewed.

About 15 years ago in a used book store, I plotzed (soiled self) when "The Los Alamos Primer: The First Lectures on How to Build an Atomic Bomb" by Robert Serber leapt out at me.

I plotzed because I was reading blueprints, diagrams and detailed DIY instructions on how to build a fission bomb. By the time Serber published LAP in 1992 (University of California Press), probably the only thing still highly classified was the exact amount of fissile material you need to go critical.

Please give yourselves a thrill and a treat and read Serber's "Los Alamos Primer." Serber (1909-1997) was among the youngest scientists "abducted" by the Los Alamos bomb lab. He was a protege of Oppenheimer, who picked him for a key assignment. Serber introduced every new lab arrival to every scientific fact that was known so far about bomb fission.

His mimeographed lecture notes, with his added extraordinarily candid memoirs, are about as close as a schlub like me will ever get to being a fly on the Los Alamos wall.

And kids -- don't try this at home!

How close to achieving a fission weapon could an amateur or subnational "actor" be today? Though also a little out of code, probably the most thorough discussion of this very troubling question is "The Curve of Binding Energy: A Journey into the Awesome and Alarming World of Theodore B. Taylor," originally a 1974 New Yorker article by John McPhee.


Taylor was a Los Alamos bomb designer in the era after World War II, and specialized in miniaturizing fission weapons -- the very interesting and topical question: How small can it be?


Taylor also teamed with Freeman Dyson on Project Orion, the visionary scheme to use fission weapons as engines for interplanetary and interstellar travel. Prophesy isn't really all that magical a gift. Intellect, imagination, education, and a little creativity earn you 90 percent of a Nostradamus certificate. Taylor and Dyson are remarkably prophetic guys, and for half a century have regularly been the first to reach or see things that, for everybody else, only exists in Tomorrow.

Two startling answers stand out.

* Before the industrially massive Oak Ridge and Hanford facilities, the only source for fissile Uranium 235 came from Ernest Orlando Lawrence's "Big Science" cyclotron and calutron atom smashers, which used state-of-the-art powerful electromagnets to separate different nuclides literally atom by atom, and deposite the U235 as smudges on strips of paper. It was the first and certainly the most inefficient and slowest possible way to accumulate weapons-grade fissile material.

One physicist from Lawrence's Berkeley lab tried to explain a fundamental law of experimental physics (circa Manhattan Project) to the journalist. This is very close to what he said:

"You won't believe or understand this, but it's true, it's the way things really were: You can achieve any desired result in physics or chemistry if you have an unlimited amount of money to spend."

And in those war-crisis days, Lawrence and Groves could pick up the phone, call Washington, and get any bizarre amount -- or. if he wished, a truckload of gold ingots at the loading dock -- instantly. A few weeks later, voila: the world's only perceivable samples of U-235 were flying from Berkeley to Los Alamos, even though Lawrence's methods practically violated the known laws of physics and chemistry.


That has immediate consequences to the question of non-state "actors" achieving a fission bomb. We tend to comfort ourselves by emphasizing bottlenecks and treaty prohibitions in acquiring rare and highly controlled and restricted materials and equipment.


But access to money is actually the much more pertinent question. With huge sums of money, all things are possible.


* The other startling conclusion from the Manhattan days is that when the Manhattan Project (actually the Manhattan District) began, nothing was known, and everything had to be investigated and answered and discovered. Even the certain Yes/No answer to the fundamental question: Is an atomic bomb possible? was unknown.

That changed once and forever on 16 July 1945. Now, anyone who wants to build a fission bomb has been saved about 80 percent of the cost of the 19 kiloton Trinity bomb -- just by knowing already that it can be done. 80 percent of a bomb-maker's research and development costs have already been paid for and underwritten by the US and UK WWII-era governments.

We invented the wheel and proved it rolls. It never has to be invented a second time; you can skip research and development and go directly into production.
Everything else (like the precise required minimum of fissile material) is relatively small details, a scary amount of it "Eagle Scout" level. Almost all the declassified knowledge was declassified because it was already common knowledge to the worldwide technical and scientific community.

Pakistan in particular demonstrated that a 1980 bomb program can succeed with surplus, hopelessly old-fashioned 1940s technology -- and an enormous amount of patience. We desperately needed our bomb before the Germans built theirs.

But to Pakistan, India will always be across the frontier. Pakistan (and India and Iran, and apparently Syria) will always have time to watch hundreds of ancient pre-owned centrifuges separate nuclides in gas form.


Rocket science deserves to be called rocket science. Bomb science isn't rocket science.

And like horseshoes, close counts, a lot. Even a disappointing dud that fails to go full incandescent mushroom leaves The Mother Of All Long-Lasting Messes. Taking into account a non-state actor's ultimate motives and aims, failure is success.

I'm also very fond of Lansing Lamont's "Day of Trinity" (1965). As time keeps rolling on -- and pivotal figures like Tibbets slip beyond the horizon -- it's very possible no one will ever write better, more detaiiled or more authentic books than the books that were written in the shadow of the first bombs. You can only be chatty or gossipy or candid or revealing while you're alive.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hmmm, saw the Tibbett Obituary yesterday in a local paper and a few things that stuck in my mind were that he never showed any repent, when aksed if he ever felt guilty he used to say : Hell, no! his grandson is also a fighter pilot nicknamed Nuke. hmmm Didnt one of tibbets mates from the Enola Gay crew end up in a sanatorium or soemthing ? Hmmm .

I am going to see my SweetiePie soon after i will have written this message. She can choose between Trinity and Beyond (she likes exlposions) or the Last King of Scotland. i cannot find the Shadowmakers (known to you as Fat Man and Little Boy) in german, otherwise I would bring along that one as well.

Thou Shalt Not Speak Unfabourably Of The Dead, 92 is quite an age. this man has crossed a barrier that would have left most of us insane or unstable for the rest of their lives. Dunno how he slept at night tho. Ws he a good Upright American ? Or just a Loony who did what he did but did not see the errors of his ways ? History will decide, not me, I am off to SweetiePie !

Vleeptron Dude said...

One of the myths or legends associated with the US Civil War is that it was possible to make war as gentlemen, with honor. In particular, Southerners take as their consolation prize for losing the widespread belief that the Northern military were industrial thugs, but Confederate generals and officers were indeed honorable gentlemen, particularly in their dealings with civilians.

In any war, this notion of honorable warfare is just propaganda, to make both the winners and the losers feel better about what they did and the decisions they made during the war.

Sport at least has a built-in understanding and acceptance of losing. But once war is declared, both sides do everything to achieve victory, no restraint is ever tolerated.

One thing that is relatively new to the human experience is bombing from the air. This is the ultimate distancing of warrior from victim: A mile above the enemy territory, a technician turns some dials and computes some numbers and presses a button. But this is how modern wars are waged and won: The side with superior air power bombs the enemy until the enemy no longer has the military or industrial capacity to wage war.

Btw, did you know that the US Air Force bombed Switzerland during World War II? I just read about this. Navigator error. We said we were sorry and paid some damages. That's inevitably built into this kind of modern techno-warfare too: Sometimes the technicians get the numbers wrong. (Enemy anti-aircraft and fighters are shooting at them, it's a very nervous bit of computing.)

If there exists any kind of honor or civilized behavior in modern war, then surely the moment for it is BEFORE the war is declared. The only possible civilized act of warfare is not to wage war to begin with. Once the war starts, all hell breaks lose. That's the whole point of spending all that money on the missiles and the tanks and the planes and the bombs, nuclear and conventional. To use them.

Vleeptron Dude said...

Okay, here it is from Wikipedia:
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On March 4, 1945 six USAAF B-24H bombers hit Zurich with 12.5 tons of heavy explosives and 12 tons of incendiaries resulting in seven fatalities. The intended target had been Aschaffenburg (300 km north). The six bombers had gone off course and believed they were bombing Freiburg.

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An odd footnote -- the movie star James Stewart, an Air Force bomber colonel during World War II, commanded the court martial of the crew who bombed Zurich. They were found not guilty. From 1 mile above the ground, in bad weather, CH looks a lot like DE.

Anonymous said...

Zurich ? Dunno bout that one, but definetly Basle and Schaffhausen. me grandpop still had the darkening blankets fro WWII when we had to empty the house. it was common practice to have darkening blankets around the whole of CH around the time, even in a rural village. Basle and Schaffhausen were quit quite heavily, i seem to remember that some ppl were actually killed. there were also planes that had to do emergency landings from both the USAF and the Red Army, me grandparents used to tell those stories, me grandmom claimed she actually saw one.

oh btw me and sweetiepie is no mo.
At least not for now, Love has torn us apart. but we are still friends. sigh.

if women had been the dominat sex throuhgt history (they are, but we stupid idiots have not noticed yet) instead of us loonies then there would have been no wars. Just arguments, arguments , arguments

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